Click Through Rate (CTR) is down ~30%. AI retail assistants are deciding. Where do you earn trust now?
I’ve been stress-testing AI search journeys and walking off-price aisles. The throughline is blunt: online “browse” is collapsing into “answers.” If shoppers don’t meander through your site like they used to, you need an offline discovery engine, and the TJX family of banners already owns that habit.
What AI retail assistants mean for brand discovery
When AI assistants pre-select product options, off-price shelves become your proof engine, finite placement, high-intent traffic, visible adjacency.
Walmart and Amazon are conditioning shoppers to decide, not browse. Walmart is rolling out Instant Checkout in ChatGPT so a basket can go from conversation to purchase inside the chat interface (Walmart newsroom + Reuters). Amazon says shoppers who engage with Rufus (its AI assistant) are 60% more likely to purchase than those who don’t (Fortune). What this means: When the journey goes answer → cart, fewer shoppers ever see new brands; off-price becomes the discovery lane.
This shift compresses the space where emerging brands historically shaped consideration. When the assistant proposes the shortlist, and can check out in one tap, you influence fewer steps online. The play is to earn proof offline in banners where discovery still compounds.
Need an operator built for this moment? Common Shelf helps brands use off-price as a brand-safe discovery channel and retail growth engine. Chat with us today!
Google AI Overviews & CTR: why “online browse” is dying
Beyond Walmart and Amazon’s assistants, Google’s AI Overviews are standardizing “answer over browse” across the open web.
One year into Google’s AI Overviews, impressions are up ~49% YoY but CTR is down ~30%, per BrightEdge. Independent testing shows the squeeze intensifies when an AIO panel appears: organic CTR down ~61% on informational queries (Seer Interactive) and paid CTR also declines on those pages.
What this means: As AIO absorbs exploratory clicks, the “consideration stage” shifts to the aisle. Off-price shelves turn packaging + adjacency into the new discovery loop, credible, finite, and measurable.
TikTok Shop demand → off-price discovery (brand-safe)
As AI answer engines compress browsing, the demand they displace reappears as social surges, most notably on TikTok.
TikTok Shop U.S. GMV jumped from ~$15.1M (Jul ’23) to ~$1.1B (Jul ’25) (Charm.io data via Retail TouchPoints). But most shoppers don’t finish in-app: 73% discover on social; only 37% finish purchases there (Coveo 2025). Translation: discovery starts on social, but completion often happens elsewhere, with retailers they already trust. That’s your opening.
Operator move: Capture that demand on shelf. Engineer a strong assortment around your hero SKU. Push for placement adjacent to respected brands at T.J. Maxx/Marshalls/Ross, and you convert online spike energy into cash + credible shelf velocity, without cheapening your brand. (You’ll measure this not just in POs but in sell-through cadence, weeks of supply, and reorders.)
Want the deeper pipeline? Read the play by play here: TikTok → TJX: Translating Virality to Velocity.
The concentration: off-price is where discovery still compounds
So where do those social surges actually convert? In off-price, where discovery is habit and placement is finite.
Foot traffic keeps tilting toward off-price. Q1 2025 visits grew +6.5% at Burlington, +3.8% at T.J. Maxx, +3.3% at Marshalls; Ross +0.5% (Placer.ai ). Dwell times are consistently strong versus broader apparel, shoppers linger and hunt.
The P&L is reflecting that traffic: TJX posted +4% comp sales in Q2 FY26 and raised FY guidance. Burlington delivered +5% comps in Q2 2025 and raised the full-year outlook. In other words, this is where attention is compounding, and being monetized.
What this means: Traffic isn’t your constraint, placement is. Endcaps, adjacencies, and pack counts are finite. As AI standardizes the web, scarcity returns to the aisle. Secure adjacency, bring engineered value, and treat the shelf as your trust engine, because it is.
Proof in action: Roofus (case study)
We didn’t treat TJX as liquidation, we used it as a brand-safe discovery channel and growth engine. A controlled placement created on-shelf proof that buyers could see and measure. The result: Roofus was discovered and pulled into six big-box retailers off that TJX momentum. Read the Roofus case study.
“But won’t off-price hurt my brand?”
Not if you operate it like a growth channel.
Banner control & timing. Curated, national off-price banners only; windows that align with inventory realities and category moments.
Engineered value. Deliver pack-level value (ounces per dollar, trial kits) rather than naked price cuts.
Packaging parity. Keep the packaging on-brand; no discount sub-brands that telegraph distress.
Velocity narrative. Report sell-through, reorder cadence, and adjacency wins—that becomes proof for your wholesale deck, investors, and next-round buyers.
Handled correctly, off-price enhances credibility, ie., Roofus used a curated TJX placement to earn shelf proof and subsequently field six big-box approaches.
A simple mental model for founders
Before: “Rank → Click → Educate → Convert.”
Now: “Answer → (maybe) Click → Convert.”
If the answer layer shortens the path, your education & trust moments must migrate. In off-price, the aisle is the funnel: signage, adjacency, value architecture, and packaging do the work that long-form landing pages used to do.
So, what to do next? (30-day plan)
Readiness audit. Map SKUs by dating, MAP risk, and pack opportunities.
Pilot one pack in one banner. Choose a spike-friendly SKU and secure a trial opportunity in a single retailer.
Instrument proof. Build a one-page velocity sheet: pack, SRP, banner, store count, sell-through, reorders, UGC.
Narrative loop. Push shelf sightings and a value explainer on social/email to catch shoppers who discovered you online but finish elsewhere.
Conclusion
As AI compresses online discovery into pre-digested answers, authority migrates to places where shoppers still make up their minds, on shelf. Off-price is winning traffic and comps, and the discovery habit is concentrated in a handful of banners. That’s scarcity you can plan against.
My bet: Brands that treat TJX/Marshalls/Ross as a discovery channel, not a fire sale, will compound faster in the AI era.
Ready to turn spikes into predictable POs? Common Shelf runs brand-safe off-price programs across TJX/Marshalls/Ross. Start here.
FAQs: off-price, AI discovery, and brand equity
What are AI retail assistants?
Tools like Amazon Rufus and Walmart’s ChatGPT Instant Checkout that answer questions, compare products, and push shoppers directly to cart—compressing online browsing.
How do AI retail assistants affect CTR and discovery?
AIO/AI Mode increases impressions but reduces clicks; when answers happen in-interface, fewer shoppers visit brand sites. Studies show large CTR declines on AIO pages, including –61% organic CTR for informational queries (Seer).
Is off-price retail good for emerging brands?
Yes, if you run it with guardrails! Use curated formats, MAP-compatible price bands, clean dating, and approved banners; treat it as brand-safe discovery and cashflow.
Does selling at T.J. Maxx hurt brand equity?
Nope. Handled correctly, it will enhance it: adjacency to respected brands + strong sell-through = shelf credibility. Your flagship channels stay protected by price bands and rotation cadence.
Where are off-price visits and comps trending?
Q1 ’25 visits were up across off-price (Burlington +6.5%, T.J. Maxx +3.8%, Marshalls +3.3%), and TJX posted +4% comps in Q2 FY26 while Burlington raised FY outlook off +5% comps in Q2. (Placer.ai)
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